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1.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 12704, 2023 Aug 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37543683

RESUMO

Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010-2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6-47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9-39 Mg C [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]=0.16-0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting.

2.
Glob Chang Biol ; 29(18): 5292-5303, 2023 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37408285

RESUMO

Despite recent advances in modeling forest-rainfall relationships, the current understanding of changes in observed rainfall patterns resulting from historical deforestation remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed how 40 years of deforestation has altered rainfall patterns in South America as well as how current Amazonian forest cover sustains rainfall. First, we develop a spatiotemporal neural network model to simulate rainfall as a function of vegetation and climate inputs in South America; second, we assess the rainfall effects of observed deforestation in South America during the periods 1982-2020 and 2000-2020; third, we assess the potential rainfall changes in the Amazon biome under two deforestation scenarios. We find that, on average, cumulative deforestation in South America from 1982 to 2020 has reduced rainfall over the period 2016-2020 by 18% over deforested areas, and by 9% over non-deforested areas across South America. We also find that more recent deforestation, that is, from 2000 to 2020, has reduced rainfall over the period 2016-2020 by 10% over deforested areas and by 5% over non-deforested areas. Deforestation between 1982 and 2020 has led to a doubling in the area experiencing a minimum dry season of 4 months in the Amazon biome. Similarly, in the Cerrado region, there has been a corresponding doubling in the area with a minimum dry season of 7 months. These changes are compared to a hypothetical scenario where no deforestation occurred. Complete conversion of all Amazon forest land outside protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 36% and complete deforestation of all forest cover including protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 68%. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for effective conservation measures to safeguard both forest ecosystems and sustainable agricultural practices.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , América do Sul , Florestas , Clima , Brasil
3.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(10): ofac467, 2022 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36225739

RESUMO

Background: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) often lead to critical illness and death. The primary aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and leukocyte count for the diagnosis of BSI in critically ill patients. Methods: This was a nested case-control study based on the Procalcitonin And Survival Study (PASS) trial (n = 1200). Patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) <24 hours, and not expected to die within <24 hours, were recruited. For the current study, we included patients with a BSI within ±3 days of ICU admission and matched controls without a BSI in a 1:2 ratio. Diagnostic accuracy for BSI for the biomarkers on days 1, 2, and 3 of ICU admission was assessed. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated for prespecified thresholds and for a data-driven cutoff. Results: In total, there were 525 patients (n = 175 cases, 350 controls). The fixed low threshold for all 3 biomarkers (CRP = 20 mg/L; leucocytes = 10 × 109/L; PCT = 0.4 ng/mL) resulted in negative predictive values on day 1: CRP = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.75-1.00; leukocyte = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.81; PCT = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84-0.96). Combining the 3 biomarkers yielded similar results as PCT alone (P = .5). Conclusions: CRP and PCT could in most cases rule out BSI in critically ill patients. As almost no patients had low CRP and ∼20% had low PCT, a low PCT could be used, along with other information, to guide clinical decisions.

4.
Environ Health ; 21(1): 62, 2022 07 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35790967

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Indonesian peatlands have been drained for agricultural development for several decades. This development has made a major contribution to economic development. At the same time, peatland drainage is causing significant air pollution resulting from peatland fires. Peatland fires occur every year, even though their extent is much larger in dry (El Niño) years. We examine the health effects of long-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) from all types of peatland fires (including the burning of above and below ground biomass) in Sumatra and Kalimantan, where most peatland fires in Indonesia take place. METHODS: We derive PM2.5 concentrations from satellite imagery calibrated and validated with Indonesian Government data on air pollution, and link increases in these concentrations to peatland fires, as observed in satellite imagery. Subsequently, we apply available epidemiological studies to relate PM2.5 exposure to a range of health outcomes. The model utilizes the age distribution and disease prevalence of the impacted population. RESULTS: We find that PM2.5 air pollution from peatland fires, causes, on average, around 33,100 adults and 2900 infants to die prematurely each year from air pollution. In addition, peatland fires cause on average around 4390 additional hospitalizations related to respiratory diseases, 635,000 severe cases of asthma in children, and 8.9 million lost workdays. The majority of these impacts occur in Sumatra because of its much higher population density compared to Kalimantan. A main source of uncertainty is in the Concentration Response Functions (CRFs) that we use, with different CRFs leading to annual premature adult mortality ranging from 19,900 to 64,800 deaths. Currently, the population of both regions is relatively young. With aging of the population over time, vulnerabilities to air pollution and health effects from peatland fires will increase. CONCLUSIONS: Peatland fire health impacts provide a further argument to combat fires in peatlands, and gradually transition to peatland management models that do not require drainage and are therefore not prone to fire risks.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar , Incêndios , Agricultura , Criança , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos
5.
J Environ Manage ; 308: 114597, 2022 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35121462

RESUMO

Understanding the perception, use, and prioritization of ecosystem services (ES) is important for shaping local environmental policies. This study assessed for the Cordillera Region, Philippines, Indigenous peoples (IPs) perception on the significance of ES for their well-being, influence of socio-economic factors attributing to these perceptions, and ranked the most valued ES. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a semi-structured questionnaires with 922 households in 48 villages of the Region. We found that most frequently identified and valued ES are provisioning (food, income, and medicinal resources) followed by cultural and regulating ES. The study showed signficant influence (p-value 0.001) of ethnicity, occupation, gender, and age to affect local perceptions of ES provided by the landscapes. A remarkable differences appeared in prioritizing ES, e.g. younger local respondents value ES more than older ones; women have appreciated most ES; and ethnic groupings tend to have a different value of ES that are significantly connected with the landscape characteristics. Traditional rice farming systems was ranked as source providing the most valued ES followed by conventional farming systems and off-farming activities like collection of non-timber forest products. Furthermore, IPs involvement to local surveys are useful in ecosystem conservation strategies because the way society modifies an ecosystem is a function associated to perceptions, interest, and values. A relevant information to decision-makers that must be integrated into local development planning to maintain the flow of ES that support the livelihood in a community.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Povos Indígenas , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Feminino , Florestas , Humanos , Filipinas
6.
Heliyon ; 7(10): e08208, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34746469

RESUMO

Peatland plays a pivotal role in providing natural resource production and environmental services for human welfare. However, many studies have mentioned the impact of dryland cultivation in peatland on the shifting carbon balance in the ecosystem that clearly will alter the interaction of these two ecosystem services. The goal of this study, conducted under the framework of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework, was to monetary value the ecosystem services (ES) of provisioning and carbon regulating services of the Gaung-Batang Tuaka Peat Hydrological Unit (KHG). We focused on KHG in response to Regulation No.57/2016, which highlights ecosystem boundary as a new basis for peatland management. Under the SEEA framework, ecosystem services become a benefit when utilized by ecosystem beneficiaries. In this case, provisioning services will be valued only for cultivated land, while carbon services calculated for the entire study area (global beneficiaries). Our study showed that the provisioning services and carbon services are under the trade-off condition, where the monetary value of provisioning services increased at a slower rate (0.50 million USD annually) than the monetary loss of the benefit of carbon services (5.28 million USD annually), greatly exceeded the monetary value of provisioning services. We highlight two main strategies to increase the monetary value of the KHG towards a synergy condition, namely increased value-added by reducing the productivity gap among ES beneficiaries and large-scale adoption of a profitable cultivation system with minimum peat disturbance. The main enablers required include financing access and incentives (e.g., reduce tax) and disincentives to allow for peat-adaptive commodities to compete with dryland commodities in the future market.

7.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 20000, 2021 10 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34625594

RESUMO

Peoples' recreation and well-being are closely related to their aesthetic enjoyment of the landscape. Ecosystem service (ES) assessments record the aesthetic contributions of landscapes to peoples' well-being in support of sustainable policy goals. However, the survey methods available to measure these contributions restrict modelling at large scales. As a result, most studies rely on environmental indicator models but these do not incorporate peoples' actual use of the landscape. Now, social media has emerged as a rich new source of information to understand human-nature interactions while advances in deep learning have enabled large-scale analysis of the imagery uploaded to these platforms. In this study, we test the accuracy of Flickr and deep learning-based models of landscape quality using a crowdsourced survey in Great Britain. We find that this novel modelling approach generates a strong and comparable level of accuracy versus an indicator model and, in combination, captures additional aesthetic information. At the same time, social media provides a direct measure of individuals' aesthetic enjoyment, a point of view inaccessible to indicator models, as well as a greater independence of the scale of measurement and insights into how peoples' appreciation of the landscape changes over time. Our results show how social media and deep learning can support significant advances in modelling the aesthetic contributions of ecosystems for ES assessments.

8.
Ann Intensive Care ; 11(1): 61, 2021 Apr 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33877463

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine if the ABO blood types carry different risks of 30-day mortality, acute kidney injury (AKI), and endothelial damage in critically ill patients with sepsis. This was a retrospective cohort study of three independent cohorts of critically ill patients from the United States and Scandinavia consisting of adults with septic shock. We compared the 30-day mortality across the blood types within each cohort and pooled the results in a meta-analysis. We also estimated the incidence of AKI and degree of endothelial damage, as measured by blood concentrations of soluble thrombomodulin and syndecan-1. RESULTS: We included 12,342 patients with severe sepsis. In a pooled analysis blood type B carried a slightly lower risk of 30-day all-cause mortality compared to non-blood type B (adjusted HR 0.88; 95%-CI 0.79-0.98; p = 0.02). There was no difference in the risk of AKI. Soluble thrombomodulin and syndecan-1 concentrations were lower in patients with blood type B and O compared to blood type A, suggesting less endothelial damage. CONCLUSION: Septic patients with blood type B had less endothelial damage, and a small reduction in mortality. The exposure is, however, unmodifiable.

9.
BMJ Case Rep ; 13(8)2020 Aug 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32843444

RESUMO

A 49-year-old man with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was hospitalised due to pneumonia and pulmonary embolisms. After subsequently developing septic shock and acute renal failure, he required dialysis. A haemodialysis catheter was planned inserted into the right subclavian vein, the guidewire was introduced using the Seldinger technique. When the guidewire's 20 cm marker entered the introducer needle, it suddenly encountered resistance. Repeated attempts to remove the guidewire failed. Vital signs and haemodynamic parameters remained unchanged throughout the procedure. CT angiography revealed cranial displacement of the wire into the right internal jugular vein, with the tip of the wire just cranial to the jugular foramen in the right sigmoid sinus. Interventional radiological removal attempts were unsuccessful. Thoracic and neurosurgical interventions were considered impossible and the guidewire was left in place. Due to the pulmonary embolism and the foreign object in the patient, life-long anticoagulation was considered, with close monitoring of compliance with the patient's comorbidity and medication.


Assuntos
Cateterismo Venoso Central/instrumentação , Falha de Equipamento , Veias Jugulares , Diálise Renal/instrumentação , Encéfalo , Cateterismo Venoso Central/métodos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Veia Subclávia
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 737: 140168, 2020 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32783834

RESUMO

Worldwide, water resources are increasingly under pressure. The Water accounting approach of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been developed to inform decision-makers on water supply, use, and quality. However, a critical issue in water accounting is finding data and models to populate SEEA water accounts. In particular, there are challenges in aligning hydrological models with accounting principles. Also, there is a need to test further how the SEEA water accounts can be connected to policy uses. The objective of this study is to develop water accounts with the use of a hydrological model. Specifically, we apply the SWAT hydrological model in the Buyuk Menderes Basin in Turkey to estimate the key hydrological parameters required for water accounting. To adapt and link SWAT to SEEA water accounts, we develop supply and use tables and asset accounts following the SEEA water for the year 2014 and explore how water accounts can inform policymaking. This article provides new insights into the added value of using a hydrological model in constructing water accounts for better water resources management.

12.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 26(30): 31315-31327, 2019 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31471850

RESUMO

The conversion of Indonesian tropical peatlands has been associated with the recurring problems of peatland fires and smoke affecting humans and the environment. Yet, the local government and public in the affected areas have paid little attention to the impacts and costs of the poor air quality on human health. This study aims to analyse the long-term health impacts of the peat smoke exposure to the local populations. We applied the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to determine the smoke dispersion and the associated PM2.5 concentrations of the resulted plumes from the fire hotspots in the deep and shallow peatlands in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, that occurred during a 5-year period (2011-2015). We subsequently quantified the long-term health impacts of PM2.5 on the local people down to the village level based on the human health risk assessment approach. Our study shows that the average increase in the annual mean PM2.5 concentration due to peatland fires in Central Kalimantan was 26 µg/m3 which is more than twice the recommended value of the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guidelines. This increase in PM2.5 leads to increased occurrence of a range of air pollution-related diseases and premature mortality. The number of premature mortality cases can be estimated at 648 cases per year (26 mortality cases per 100,000 population) among others due to chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and lung cancer. Our results shed further light on the long-term health impacts of peatland fires in Indonesia and the importance of sustainable peatland management.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Incêndios Florestais , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Pneumopatias/mortalidade , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade , Material Particulado/análise , Saúde Pública , Medição de Risco , Fumaça/efeitos adversos , Fumaça/análise , Solo
13.
Ecol Appl ; 29(4): e01901, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30980439

RESUMO

Understanding the drivers of ecosystem change and their effects on ecosystem services are essential for management decisions and verification of progress towards national and international sustainability policies (e.g., Aichi Biodiversity Targets, Sustainable Development Goals). We aim to disentangle spatially the effect of climatological and non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service supply and trends. Therefore, we explored time series of three ecosystem services in Switzerland between 2004 and 2014: carbon dioxide regulation, soil erosion prevention, and air quality regulation. We applied additive models to describe the spatial variation attributed to climatological (i.e., temperature, precipitation and relative sunshine duration) and non-climatological drivers (i.e., random effects representing other spatially structured processes) that may affect ecosystem service change. Obtained results indicated strong influences of climatological drivers on ecosystem service trends in Switzerland. We identified equal contributions of all three climatological drivers on trends of carbon dioxide regulation and soil erosion prevention, while air quality regulation was more strongly influenced by temperature. Additionally, our results showed that climatological and non-climatological drivers affected ecosystem services both negatively and positively, depending on the regions (in particular lower and higher altitudinal areas), drivers, and services assessed. Our findings highlight stronger effects of climatological compared to non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service change in Switzerland. Furthermore, drivers of ecosystem change display a spatial heterogeneity in their influence on ecosystem service trends. We propose an approach building on an additive model to disentangle the effect of climatological and non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service trends. Such analyses should be extended in the future to ecosystem service flow and demand to complete ecosystem service assessments and to demonstrate and communicate more clearly the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Solo , Biodiversidade , Dióxido de Carbono , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Humanos , Suíça
15.
Environ Manage ; 63(1): 1-15, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30267222

RESUMO

Ecosystems contribute to economic development through the supply of ecosystem services such as food and fresh water. Information on ecosystems and their services is required to support policy making, but this information is not captured in economic statistics. Ecosystem accounting has been developed to integrate ecosystems and ecosystem services into national accounts. Ecosystem accounting includes the compilation of an ecosystem services supply and use account, which reflects actual flows of ecosystem services, and the ecosystem capacity account, which reflects the capacity of ecosystems to sustainably supply ecosystem services. A capacity assessment requires detailed data on ecosystem processes, which are often not available over large scales. In this study, we examined how net primary productivity derived from remote sensing can be used as an indicator to assess changes in the capacity of ecosystems to supply services. We examine the spatial and temporal patterns in this capacity for the Orinoco river basin from 2001 to 2014. Specifically, we analyze the capacity of six types of ecosystems to supply timber, pastures for grazing cattle, oil palm fresh fruit bunches and to sequester carbon. We compared ecosystem capacities with the level of ecosystem service supply to assess a sustainable use of ecosystems. Our study provides insights on how the capacity of ecosystems can be quantified using remote sensing data in the context of ecosystem accounting. Ecosystem capacity indicators indicate ecosystems change and harvesting-regeneration patterns which are important for the design and monitoring of sustainable management regimes for ecosystems.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Animais , Bovinos , Água Doce , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Rios
16.
PLoS One ; 13(3): e0192642, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29513753

RESUMO

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , Mudança Climática , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Clima Tropical , Agricultura/tendências , Benin , Biomassa , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/tendências , Ecossistema , Umidade , Modelos Biológicos , Água/metabolismo
17.
Lancet Respir Med ; 6(3): 183-192, 2018 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29325753

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Animal models of serious infection suggest that 24 h of induced hypothermia improves circulatory and respiratory function and reduces mortality. We tested the hypothesis that a reduction of core temperature to 32-34°C attenuates organ dysfunction and reduces mortality in ventilator-dependent patients with septic shock. METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, open-label trial, we recruited patients from ten intensive care units (ICUs) in three countries in Europe and North America. Inclusion criteria for patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were a mean arterial pressure of less than 70 mm Hg, mechanical ventilation in an ICU, age at least 50 years, predicted length of stay in the ICU at least 24 h, and recruitment into the study within 6 h of fulfilling inclusion criteria. Exclusion criteria were uncontrolled bleeding, clinically important bleeding disorder, recent open surgery, pregnancy or breastfeeding, or involuntary psychiatric admission. We randomly allocated patients 1:1 (with variable block sizes ranging from four to eight; stratified by predictors of mortality, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and study site) to routine thermal management or 24 h of induced hypothermia (target 32-34°C) followed by 48 h of normothermia (36-38°C). The primary endpoint was 30 day all-cause mortality in the modified intention-to-treat population (all randomly allocated patients except those for whom consent was withdrawn or who were discovered to meet an exclusion criterion after randomisation but before receiving the trial intervention). Patients and health-care professionals giving the intervention were not masked to treatment allocation, but assessors of the primary outcome were. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01455116. FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 2011, and Nov 4, 2016, we screened 5695 patients. After recruitment of 436 of the planned 560 participants, the trial was terminated for futility (220 [50%] randomly allocated to hypothermia and 216 [50%] to routine thermal management). In the hypothermia group, 96 (44·2%) of 217 died within 30 days versus 77 (35·8%) of 215 in the routine thermal management group (difference 8·4% [95% CI -0·8 to 17·6]; relative risk 1·2 [1·0-1·6]; p=0·07]). INTERPRETATION: Among patients with septic shock and ventilator-dependent respiratory failure, induced hypothermia does not reduce mortality. Induced hypothermia should not be used in patients with septic shock. FUNDING: Trygfonden, Lundbeckfonden, and the Danish National Research Foundation.


Assuntos
Hipotermia Induzida/mortalidade , Insuficiência Respiratória/terapia , Choque Séptico/terapia , APACHE , Idoso , Europa (Continente) , Feminino , Humanos , Hipotermia Induzida/métodos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Masculino , América do Norte , Respiração Artificial/métodos , Respiração Artificial/mortalidade , Insuficiência Respiratória/etiologia , Insuficiência Respiratória/mortalidade , Choque Séptico/complicações , Choque Séptico/mortalidade , Resultado do Tratamento
18.
Reg Environ Change ; 18(5): 1521-1534, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31007598

RESUMO

Economic development has increased pressures on natural resources during the last decades. The concept of planetary boundaries has been developed to propose limits on human activities based on earth processes and ecological thresholds. However, this concept was not developed to downscale planetary boundaries to sub-global level. The absence of boundaries at sub-global levels constrains the use of the concept in environmental governance and natural resource management, because decisions are typically taken at these levels. Decisions at the national level are currently supported, among others, by statistical frameworks in particular the System of National Accounts. However, statistical frameworks were not developed to compile environmental information, hindering environmental decision making. Our study examines if and how ecosystem accounting can be used in combination with the concept of planetary boundaries in guiding human activities at the level of a river basin. We assess the applicability of both frameworks for natural resource management in the Orinoco river basin, based on adaptive management components. Our analysis indicates that differences in the purpose of analysis, information provided, and methods constrain the potential integration of both frameworks. Nevertheless, the way both frameworks conceptualize the social system and the interactions between social and ecological systems can facilitate translating planetary boundaries into indicators considered in ecosystem accounting. The information recorded in national ecosystem accounts can support establishing ecological thresholds and, more fundamentally, to relate ecological thresholds to human impacts on ecosystem condition. Capitalizing on these synergies requires further exchange of experiences between the communities working on ecosystem accounting and planetary boundaries.

19.
Sci Total Environ ; 610-611: 1581-1589, 2018 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28647155

RESUMO

Meeting the dual objectives of food security and ecosystem protection is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end agricultural intensification is considered desirable, yet, there remain uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change on opportunities for agricultural intensification and the adequacy of intensification options given the rapid population growth. We quantify trade-offs between levels of yield gap closure, food availability and forest and woodland conservation under different scenarios. Each scenario is made up of a combination of variants of four parameters i.e. (1) climate change based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); (2) population growth based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); (3) cropland expansion with varying degrees of deforestation; and (4) different degrees of yield gap closure. We carry out these analyses for three major food crops, i.e. maize, cassava and yam, in Benin. Our analyses show that in most of the scenarios, the required levels of yield gap closures required to maintain the current levels of food availability can be achieved by 2050 by maintaining the average rate of yield increases recorded over the past two and half decades in addition to the current cropping intensity. However, yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to achieve the required levels of yield gap closures by 2100. Our analyses also show that without the stated levels of yield gap closure, the areas under maize, cassava and yam cultivation will have to increase by 95%, 102% and 250% respectively in order to maintain the current levels of per capita food availability. Our study shows that food security outcomes and forest and woodland conservation goals in Benin and likely the larger SSA region are inextricably linked together and require holistic management strategies that considers trade-offs and co-benefits.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Abastecimento de Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Florestas , Agricultura/estatística & dados numéricos , Benin , Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Produtos Agrícolas , Ecossistema , Crescimento Demográfico
20.
PLoS One ; 11(11): e0164460, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27828969

RESUMO

In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems' capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.


Assuntos
Contabilidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Ecossistema , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Europa (Continente) , Agricultura Florestal , Habitação , Humanos , América do Norte , Pinus/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Solo/química
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